![]() ![]() Moral importance of human extinction risk Scientists have argued that even a small-scale nuclear war between two countries could have devastating global consequences and such local conflicts are more likely than full-scale nuclear war. These results reflect the median opinions of a group of experts, rather than a probabilistic model the actual values may be much lower or higher. In a poll of experts at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford (17–20 July 2008), the Future of Humanity Institute estimated the probability of complete human extinction by nuclear weapons at 1% within the century, the probability of 1 billion dead at 10% and the probability of 1 million dead at 30%. Kennedy estimated the probability of the Cuban Missile Crisis escalating to nuclear conflict as between 33% and 50%. In January 2020, it was moved forward to 100 seconds before midnight. The Bulletin advanced their symbolic Doomsday Clock in 2015, citing among other factors "a nuclear arms race resulting from modernization of huge arsenals". While stockpiles have been on the decline following the end of the Cold War, every nuclear country is currently undergoing modernization of its nuclear arsenal. Large stockpile with global range (dark blue), smaller stockpile with global range (medium blue), small stockpile with regional range (light blue)Īs of 2021, humanity has about 13,410 nuclear weapons, thousands of which are on hair-trigger alert. Bush stated in August 2007: "Iran's active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust". References to nuclear destruction often speak of "atomic holocaust" or "nuclear holocaust." For instance, U.S. atomic destruction." In the novel, an atomic weapon is planted in the office of the Soviet dictator, who, with German help and Chinese mercenaries, is preparing the takeover of Western Europe. a crash like a crack of Doom! The echoes of this Holocaust rumbled and rolled. One early use of the word "holocaust" to describe an imagined nuclear destruction appears in Reginald Glossop's 1926 novel The Orphan of Space: "Moscow. The English word "holocaust", derived from the Greek term "holokaustos" meaning "completely burnt", refers to great destruction and loss of life, especially by fire. ![]() Nuclear holocaust is a common feature in literature and film, especially in speculative genres such as science fiction, dystopian and post-apocalyptic fiction. It features in the security concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) and is a common scenario in survivalism. The threat of a nuclear holocaust plays an important role in the popular perception of nuclear weapons. ![]() The International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War believe that nuclear war could indirectly contribute to human extinction via secondary effects, including environmental consequences, societal breakdown, and economic collapse. Įarly Cold War-era studies suggested that billions of humans would survive the immediate effects of nuclear blasts and radiation following a global thermonuclear war. In one model, the average temperature of Earth following a full thermonuclear war falls for several years by 7 – 8 ☌ (13 to 15 degrees Fahrenheit) on average. Some scientists, such as Alan Robock, have speculated that a thermonuclear war could result in the end of modern civilisation on Earth, in part due to a long-lasting nuclear winter. īesides the immediate destruction of cities by nuclear blasts, the potential aftermath of a nuclear war could involve firestorms, a nuclear winter, widespread radiation sickness from fallout, and/or the temporary (if not permanent) loss of much modern technology due to electromagnetic pulses. Such a scenario envisages large parts of the Earth becoming uninhabitable due to the effects of nuclear warfare, potentially causing the collapse of civilization and, in the worst case, extinction of humanity and/or termination of life on Earth. Mushroom cloud from the explosion of Castle Bravo, the largest nuclear weapon detonated by the U.S., in 1954.Ī nuclear holocaust, also known as a nuclear apocalypse, nuclear Armageddon, or atomic holocaust, is a theoretical scenario where the mass detonation of nuclear weapons causes globally widespread destruction and radioactive fallout. ![]()
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